Skip to main contentThe recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal highlight that grid instability is no longer just a winter issue. While the exact cause of these outages remains unclear, one emerging risk is gaining attention: excess power on the grid.
As we approach Summer 2025, the challenge isn’t a lack of generation but managing an oversupply. National Energy System Operator (NESO) forecasts a significant operational surplus of 10 to 20 GW across Great Britain due to low demand and high renewable output, particularly from solar. At times, generation could far exceed demand, forcing Transmission System Operators to take complex balancing actions.
This marks a shift in grid dynamics. Winter still poses the traditional risk of insufficient generation during peak demand. However, summer is now equally risky, with low demand and inflexible, weather-driven supply tipping the system into imbalance.
In a high-renewables world, managing both shortfalls and surpluses is crucial. The tools are available, from battery storage to market flexibility mechanisms, but this summer’s situation is a clear signal that grid instability is now a year-round challenge.
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